Workshop on Drought Forecasting for Northeast Brazil

Precipitation forecasting parameters for northeast Brazil were developed. Hydrological, sociological, and economic aspects were examined. A drought forecasting model is presented

The Reader, the text, the Context: An Exploration of a Choreographed Response to Literature

Much current theory about response to literature stresses the reader's active role in constructing meaning, with reader, text, and context affecting the responses of individual readers (Beach, 1993). Response to literature, like most classroom interaction, tends to take a linguistic form. In a supportive classroom environment, however, a range of response media can potentially mediate students' transactions with literature. The present exploratory study used stimulated recall to elicit a retrospective account from two alternative school students who choreographed a dance to depict their understanding of the relationship between the two central characters in a short story. In their account they indicate that in composing their text they (a) initiated their interpretation by empathizing with the characters, (b) represented the characters' relationship through spatial images and configurations, and (c) used the psychological tool of dance to both represent and develop their thinking about the story. Their thought and activity were further mediated by the social context of learning, including the communication genres of the classroom, their own interaction, their teacher's intervention, and the stimulated recall interview itself. Their account illustrates the way in which reader, text, and context participate in a complex transaction when readers construct meaning for literature. Their experience also illustrates the ways in which the values of an instructional setting influence the extent to which learners may take advantage of the psychological tools available to them for growth.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Atmospheric circulation of tidally locked exoplanets: a suite of benchmark tests for dynamical solvers

The complexity of atmospheric modelling and its inherent non-linearity, together with the limited amount of data of exoplanets available, motivate model intercomparisons and benchmark tests. In the geophysical community, the Held-Suarez test is a standard benchmark for comparing dynamical core simulations of the Earth's atmosphere with different solvers, based on statistically-averaged flow quantities. In the present study, we perform analogues of the Held-Suarez test for tidally-locked exoplanets with the GFDL-Princeton Flexible Modeling System (FMS) by subjecting both the spectral and finite difference dynamical cores to a suite of tests, including the standard benchmark for Earth, a hypothetical tidally-locked Earth, a "shallow" hot Jupiter model and a "deep" model of HD 209458b. We find qualitative and quantitative agreement between the solvers for the Earth, tidally-locked Earth and shallow hot Jupiter benchmarks, but the agreement is less than satisfactory for the deep model of HD 209458b. Further investigation reveals that closer agreement may be attained by arbitrarily adjusting the values of the horizontal dissipation parameters in the two solvers, but it remains the case that the magnitude of the horizontal dissipation is not easily specified from first principles. Irrespective of radiative transfer or chemical composition considerations, our study points to limitations in our ability to accurately model hot Jupiter atmospheres with meteorological solvers at the level of ten percent for the temperature field and several tens of percent for the velocity field. Direct wind measurements should thus be particularly constraining for the models. Our suite of benchmark tests also provides a reference point for researchers wishing to adapt their codes to study the atmospheric circulation regimes of tidally-locked Earths/Neptunes/Jupiters.Comment: Accepted by MNRAS, 23 pages, 17 figures, 2 tables. No changes from previous version, except MNRAS wants no hyphen in the title. Sample movies of simulations are available at http://www.phys.ethz.ch/~kheng/fms

Large eddy simulation of two-dimensional isotropic turbulence

Large eddy simulation (LES) of forced, homogeneous, isotropic, two-dimensional (2D) turbulence in the energy transfer subrange is the subject of this paper. A difficulty specific to this LES and its subgrid scale (SGS) representation is in that the energy source resides in high wave number modes excluded in simulations. Therefore, the SGS scheme in this case should assume the function of the energy source. In addition, the controversial requirements to ensure direct enstrophy transfer and inverse energy transfer make the conventional scheme of positive and dissipative eddy viscosity inapplicable to 2D turbulence. It is shown that these requirements can be reconciled by utilizing a two-parametric viscosity introduced by Kraichnan (1976) that accounts for the energy and enstrophy exchange between the resolved and subgrid scale modes in a way consistent with the dynamics of 2D turbulence; it is negative on large scales, positive on small scales and complies with the basic conservation laws for energy and enstrophy. Different implementations of the two-parametric viscosity for LES of 2D turbulence were considered. It was found that if kept constant, this viscosity results in unstable numerical scheme. Therefore, another scheme was advanced in which the two-parametric viscosity depends on the flow field. In addition, to extend simulations beyond the limits imposed by the finiteness of computational domain, a large scale drag was introduced. The resulting LES exhibited remarkable and fast convergence to the solution obtained in the preceding direct numerical simulations (DNS) by Chekhlov et al. (1994) while the flow parameters were in good agreement with their DNS counterparts. Also, good agreement with the Kolmogorov theory was found. This LES could be continued virtually indefinitely. Then, a simplifiedComment: 34 pages plain tex + 18 postscript figures separately, uses auxilary djnlx.tex fil

Numerical studies towards practical large-eddy simulation

Large-eddy simulation developments and validations are presented for an improved simulation of turbulent internal flows. Numerical methods are proposed according to two competing criteria: numerical qualities (precision and spectral characteristics), and adaptability to complex configurations. First, methods are tested on academic test-cases, in order to abridge with fundamental studies. Consistent results are obtained using adaptable finite volume method, with higher order advection fluxes, implicit grid filtering and "low-cost" shear-improved Smagorinsky model. This analysis particularly focuses on mean flow, fluctuations, two-point correlations and spectra. Moreover, it is shown that exponential averaging is a promising tool for LES implementation in complex geometry with deterministic unsteadiness. Finally, adaptability of the method is demonstrated by application to a configuration representative of blade-tip clearance flow in a turbomachine

Weather, climate and the nature of predictability

The prediction and simulation of future weather and climate is a key ingredient in good weather risk management. This chapter briefly reviews the nature and underlying sources of predictability on timescales from hours-ahead to centuries-ahead. The traditional distinction between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’ predictions is described, and the role of recent scientific developments in driving a convergence of these two classic problems is highlighted. The chapter concludes by outlining and comparing the two main strategies used for creating weather and climate predictions, and discussing the challenges of using predictions in quantitative applications

Large-eddy simulation of buoyant plane plumes

In the present study a turbulent plane plume is examined by means of numerical simulations. Results are compared with experiments and results from integral models based on an entrainment assumption. The objective of this research is to determine wheter a large-eddy simulation can be applied in this case and what subgrid scale model performs best

Leray and LANS-α\alpha modeling of turbulent mixing

Mathematical regularisation of the nonlinear terms in the Navier-Stokes equations provides a systematic approach to deriving subgrid closures for numerical simulations of turbulent flow. By construction, these subgrid closures imply existence and uniqueness of strong solutions to the corresponding modelled system of equations. We will consider the large eddy interpretation of two such mathematical regularisation principles, i.e., Leray and LANS$-\alpha$ regularisation. The Leray principle introduces a {\bfi smoothed transport velocity} as part of the regularised convective nonlinearity. The LANS$-\alpha$ principle extends the Leray formulation in a natural way in which a {\bfi filtered Kelvin circulation theorem}, incorporating the smoothed transport velocity, is explicitly satisfied. These regularisation principles give rise to implied subgrid closures which will be applied in large eddy simulation of turbulent mixing. Comparison with filtered direct numerical simulation data, and with predictions obtained from popular dynamic eddy-viscosity modelling, shows that these mathematical regularisation models are considerably more accurate, at a lower computational cost.Comment: 42 pages, 12 figure

Anomalous Scaling of Structure Functions and Dynamic Constraints on Turbulence Simulations

The connection between anomalous scaling of structure functions (intermittency) and numerical methods for turbulence simulations is discussed. It is argued that the computational work for direct numerical simulations (DNS) of fully developed turbulence increases as $Re^{4}$, and not as $Re^{3}$ expected from Kolmogorov's theory, where $Re$ is a large-scale Reynolds number. Various relations for the moments of acceleration and velocity derivatives are derived. An infinite set of exact constraints on dynamically consistent subgrid models for Large Eddy Simulations (LES) is derived from the Navier-Stokes equations, and some problems of principle associated with existing LES models are highlighted.Comment: 18 page